Swing Short Ideas

BIDU


Big "panic" sell-off candle today on higher than average volume. Covered all shorts before closing today, will look to re-enter short on a bounce (it's oversold right now).

ADS


Breaking support, and moving averages on very heavy volume. Great short opportunity.

No real support for this stock until 100 area. Will look to enter short.

NFLX

Mentioned this stock on my past few posts and it's been treating me well for the short side. Stochastics is giving off bearish signals. And we're still not oversold on this stock despite almost 7 points lost during the past two days. I have no positions but will look to reenter this short. Low 60's, here we come. Outlook: BEARISH.

May 14th, 2012

My current holdings

Still holding AAPL short, paying off quite nicely. NFLX bounced pretty hard on Friday, did not expect an insider to be buying so many shares. It broke a descending trend line on heavy volume and it held up well today on Monday; will probably see it go down, but I closed my short position this morning on the gap down; Friday’s huge pop erased most of my NFLX gains and left me with crumbs, argh.

If this NFLX stock can't hold above the 10DMA, then I'll look to step in short again. At the end of the day, it's a crappy company with a crappy management team.

AAPL broke through 560 today, looking to test 555 from the April 24^th low. This stock is a bit oversold and we might get a dead bounce tomorrow. But test 551-555, it will for sure.

AAPL

Still short on this, we broke below and closed below 560, a small support line.

The real support zone is around 551-555, it might take a while to take it out however. Still bearish.

VXX

Let’s look at this VIX chart. I tweeted about this last night and played it long purely due to Greece's current condition. Paid off well, but I closed the position before closing.

It’s obvious that we’re going to see more volatility in the next month or so.

Broad Outlook

The Spyders broke below a support line today on weak volume. Might see a bounce tomorrow, but we’re still in a bearish region and I’m sensing lower prices for the entire market.  

Weakness in this market, but it’s not too dramatic … or is it?

HUGE WALL OF TEXT COMING UP, great insight though.

Indices

The United States economy is definitely starting to consolidate, there’s no doubt about it. How long will it last? Only time will tell.

Take a look at this SPY chart. As I mentioned before, the market wants to rest, so now we’re consolidating. An important zone is the $134 support area – give or take one or two points. Holding it will be key; breaking it on strong volume will result in turmoil. In addition, most indices ARE below the 50 DMA, thus, treading the bearish waters will require greater care. I would not suggest going long on anything until the market stabilizes again.

                                                                                                                 

Recent events have also given me a slight suspicion of the downside. The general intake from the daily headlines has been trouble. We have China posting lower data, Greece on the verge of getting shunned from the Euro yet again, and Spain creating more fear in the Eurozone with their overlooked risk.

That’s why we have the VIX heading higher – investors are simply scared.

Without question, our fear index will test the 50 DMA. Breaking through it on high volume can create huge volatility. It already broke through the descending trendline, not good.

Furthermore, JPM released some horrible news after the close, and being a significant company in the financial industry, its 5% dip will definitely create some short-term selloffs. Probably a gap down tomorrow.

Finally, we have many companies with tremendous runs in the last few months dipping as well. AAPL is a good example, let’s talk about AAPL.

AAPL

I’m sensing a gap down in the morning. I’m still short on this stock and I have been adding to my short hoard on each bounce. This stock is just not holding up at all.

Even a dead cat bounces from a big drop. Why is it a dead bounce? No volume at all. This stock wants to break that 554/555 support band very desperately.

I’m still having a negative outlook on this broken stock in the short-term. The fundamentals are still solid, so if it ever drops to 520ish, I will be looking to step in on the long side. But for now, I am short on AAPL.

NFLX

Still holding this one short. Fundamentals suck, technicals suck. Will ride until my target of 61-63.

Hope you enjoyed!

AAPL and NFLX again

AAPL, not looking good

I mentioned in my previous blog entry that bouncing on this support band for AAPL is crucial. So far, I’m not seeing any bounces. And from my perceptions of the intraday (5-minute), it doesn’t look like we’re seeing any strong bounces. However, AAPL is not breaking down just yet, so keep watching out. I tweeted this morning, around 20 minutes after the open, that I bought AAPL puts and it’s been working well. Holding these overnight will not be within my risk tolerance; this stock can still bounce or dip down, brutally fast might I add. Therefore, I will only be trading AAPL intraday via options.

My outlook for AAPL? Still bearish because it filled a huge ER gap. 555 is highly likely.

NFLX, not looking good either

In addition to AAPL puts, I also purchased NFLX puts at the same time, just briefly before the HOD. I will hold these options overnight and for a while because this stock is just looking to go lower. It’s not good to see a stock gap down at the open, rally, erase all it’s gains within the first two hours. It usually means that buyers and stepping in at the gap down with a shred of optimism, and then the sellers take over once more.

Again, I maintain my earlier prediction of a 60-63 price target for NFLX. If not lower.

Market

This market is looking weak. With more euro troubles from Greece, election drama from France and Spain being downgraded, our economy is on the verge of becoming volatile again.  The VIX is picking up a little bit, so we’re definitely going to see volatility, but definitely not as much as late last year. 

Small Update

AAPL

My previous article talked about AAPL filling the pre-earnings gap to test the 560ish area. Well, now it’s been filled. The highs of 567.69 on April 24^th have been breached. What now? Well, AAPL needs to hold this mini support line of 564-567 area, or else it’s going much lower.

My reasoning behind this speculation is that although the earnings report came out with fantastic results, investors are just not ready to push this stock to 600+. Therefore, if the gains from the ER have been erased entirely (which it has), then these investors want to press this stock to a more reasonable price. Which is probably a lower support line in the 500’s area.

Bouncing on Monday is crucial. I do not have a position in AAPL, but I will if it does not hold.

NFLX

This stock is finished, had it short since two days ago. Strong trade for me. Will continue to hold this short position until a reversal sign is established.

Heading towards the 61-65 area.

AAPL doomed to fill the gap, and other stocks worth looking at

AAPL doomed to fill the gap, and other stocks worth looking at

AAPL

Apple’s stock is acting very sluggish post-breakout after its huge earnings beat. Possible explanations? My intuition tells me that after an enormous and probably tiresome run in the last quarter, this stock is ready to take a rest. The rest is so important in fact, that a huge earnings beat did not even restart its tremendous climb towards 700.

I’m sensing lower prices, at least until around 560ish, to fill the gap.

NKE

This one has been on my list for quite a bit of time now. It’s been consolidating for about a 4 weeks in a very tight $5 dollar range. It’s been holding up the support lines and the 50 day. It broke out to new highs today and restarting it’s upward trend after a lengthy rest.

LULU

LULU has almost an identical pattern to Nike, today it broke out on above average volume. It’s looking a little overbought, but I’m going to go long on it as well as NKE.

CATM

Strong stock after breaking out from earnings.

So there’s my list, I have AAPL short and NKE, LULU and CATM long.